William Osler, often considered the father of modern medicine, famously said, "Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability." This corona virus has sure helped make his point. I don't think anybody knows exactly how the backside of the epidemic curve will play out, and we are all playing the odds on how to react to the latest news and government announcements.

The Governor is balancing the opposing tensions between the dual threats of an economic hardship and a public health crisis. I don't envy his job right now. The three colored process seem very reasonable, but is also very generalized. (https://www.governor.pa.gov/process-to-reopen-pennsylvania/) Although some recreational restrictions have been loosened state-wide, it is difficult to imagine the club officially 're-opening' club rides while the Philly suburbs are still in the red zone. 

There has been discussion of moving the sparsely populated North-Central counties to yellow on May 8. Unfortunately, the Governor and Health Secretary have said in interviews that they don't expect the Southeastern to go into the yellow phase until June. Even under the yellow phase it may be difficult to determine exactly where bike clubs like SCU fit into the general description of this phase. Further, many of our ride start locations at schools, churches and office parks will likely remain officially closed during the yellow phase. Hopefully, the details of the yellow phase will be clarified as the process proceeds.

When the Philly suburbs do go to yellow, perhaps we can consider our own phasing plan and procedures for group rides. But doing so in a manner that is fair to all and practical for the ride leaders to manage is a challenging endeavor. We all have our individual perspectives. Some of us are young and healthy, while others may be in a high-risk group or have someone in their household who is. Some of us are 'over employed' (working our butts off) and others are unemployed. Some of us are very cautious and risk averse, some of us are more cavalier. 

In the coming weeks the Executive Committee will be wrestling with this issue. Please feel free to share your opinions with us. The realities of the situation may make it impossible to satisfy everyone, but the EC wants to make decisions that best reflect the membership's needs and desires. 

In the meantime, keep riding solo or with a socially-distanced friend. I have treated this period as an opportunity to explore without fear of leading a large group onto unfamiliar roads. I have come up with some new routes that I look forward to sharing when we can ride in groups again. This month there's a chance to stave off the stay-at-home blues by participating in the first ever (and hopefully last!) Socially Distanced Quad. See details elsewhere in this newsletter. Kudos to Chuck Herbert for putting this fun event together for our mutual enjoyment. 

Keep well and ride safe.

Steve 'Any ride is better than no ride' Muth

    This year has seen many a tough day

    We have now ended April, now into May

    Covid disease has been a tough deal

    I can’t believe that this is for real

    We must continue to fight this disease

    And with it we can’t do as we please

    Life as we know it has changed

    We’ve made sacrifices, we’ve rearranged

    To fight Covid, we’ve sacrificed a lot

    Have we found favor with it?  Definitely not!

    It has meant a change for the human race

    We have had to slow down our pace

    Being apart from family and friends is not fun

    We are in this for the long run

    We continue to hope and pray for a cure

    We must continue to pray to God, that’s for sure

    Through many Front Line workers, He has revealed His glory

    He is our main source, He is the main story

    Praise God for many friends like you

    We need each other, that is true

    Let us be encouraged, let us stay positive

    Let’s work together, we will beat Covid!